by Chike Nwoye
After six months of nonstop action and plenty of drama, the regular season is officially in the books. Sunday night locked in the NBA Playoff bracket, locking down the top six seeds in both conferences and setting the stage for the final four teams to fight for the last playoff spots in the play-in round, which tips off Tuesday night.
Now, with the best time of the year for basketball fans finally here, let’s dive into the play-in basketball predictions, shall we?
The play-in tournament tips off with these two squaring up, and the winner grabs a first-round shot at the Boston Celtics. The loser isn’t out, though — they’ll take on whoever wins between the Bulls and Heat. The Magic and Hawks split their season series 2-2, though Sunday’s win for Atlanta came in a game where most of the key players sat out.
One thing to watch: the Magic are elite at forcing turnovers — they rank 2nd among NBA teams with a 16.9% turnover rate. Atlanta, meanwhile, has struggled to take care of the ball, sitting 22nd in turnover percentage at 15.0%. In the first three games against Orlando, the Hawks coughed it up 14.3 times a night, including outings with 18 and 16 turnovers.
On the flip side, the Magic are missing Jalen Suggs — their best perimeter defender — which makes life easier for Trae Young. He’s dropped 19, 38, and 28 points against them this season, but the rest of Atlanta’s squad hasn’t always stepped up. Case in point: on February 20th, Young had 38, but no other Hawk scored over 13 points. Expect a scrappy battle, but I’m leaning toward the home side — they’ve looked like the better team all year. If not for injuries to Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, they probably would’ve locked down a Top 4 seed.
I know what you’re thinking — this should be an easy win for the Warriors. Honestly, I thought the same until I remembered their brutal Play-In history. For a team that’s been the face of postseason success over the last 12 years, an 0-3 play-in record is pretty wild. Still, I’m backing them here.
The Grizzlies have only managed one win against a team above .500 since February — a stretch so rough it cost Taylor Jenkins his job with just nine games left in the season. They’re still trying to find their feet under interim coach Tuomas Lisalo, and finished the year losing six of their last ten. Sure, Ja Morant has looked sharp since coming back from injury, averaging 23.2 points and 7.3 assists, but Memphis is just too shaky for me to trust.
As for the Warriors, it’s all about Steph Curry, one of the greatest players in the history of basketball. Even at 37, the four-time champ is still the engine that drives Golden State, putting up 24.5 points and 6 assists per game across 70 outings this season.
When he’s on a basketball court, you can expect some magic… well, except last week against the Rockets where he had 3 measly points in 33 minutes.
Honestly, what was that about?? Anyway, when you add in all that playoff experience — with Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green combining for 147 playoff appearances — and you’ve got a team that knows how to handle the pressure. Plus, the Warriors have had Memphis’ number all season, taking the regular season series 3-1, with their only loss coming on the road back on December 19th.
Josh Giddey has looked like a new man since the Paris 2024 Olympics Basketball tourney and his offseason move to Chicago. He’s been stuffing the stat sheet for the Bulls night after night, racking up seven triple-doubles — the 7th most in the league.
Chicago will need him firing on all cylinders if they’re going to send the Heat packing. You see, even though the Bulls swept the season series 3-0, Miami’s playoff reputation speaks for itself - Jimmy Butler or not.
Bam Adebayo, a three-time All-Star, has long been known for his defensive chops, but lately he’s added a smooth 3-point shot to his game — hitting 43.5% from deep over his last 34 outings.
Then there’s Erik Spoelstra, who, in my humble opinion, is still the best tactical coach in the NBA. And in Adebayo and Tyler Herro, Miami arguably has the two best players on the floor for this matchup — and in must-win games like this, having the top two guys usually tips the scales.
Herro has been on fire over his last 12 games, averaging 27.4 points and 4.9 assists while shooting 47.4% from three. Adebayo’s been just as reliable, putting up 21.3 points, 8.3 boards, 4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game during the same stretch.
I’m rolling with the Kings on this one — and yeah, I’ll admit, maybe it’s a bit of an emotional pick. Do I really need to rehash how the Mavericks tripped over themselves this season, lost Luka Doncic to the Lakers, and Kyrie Irving to injury? Probably not.
Sure, the Mavs still have the best player on the floor in Anthony Davis, but let’s be honest — you can never fully trust his health. It’s always a question mark with AD. Since the trade, however, the Mavs have a marginally better defensive rating (115.0) and are significantly worse on offence (113.7), but have been a far better team in both categories when Davis is on the floor. So, again, it’s up to AD.
The Kings, meanwhile, finished the season at 40-42 but still cracked the top 10 in offensive rating (115.9). And when they faced the Mavs, they lit them up, averaging 120.3 points in the three games they won. With Zach LaVine (22.4 ppg), DeMar DeRozan (22.2 ppg), and Domantas Sabonis (19.1 ppg), Sacramento has three legit scorers who can fill it up on any given night. The downside? Their defense — a 115.3 rating that ranks bottom 10 in the league. The Kings are a more well-rounded team with a superior bench, and have the benefit of one of the best home crowds in the NBA.
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